New Launch Condo Market 2026: Which Projects Have Held or Grown in Value After Launch
Not all new launch condos hold value after their initial sale. Here is how to read subsale and resale data from recent launches to assess which projects have performed and why.
Every new launch showroom tells the same story: buy now, values will rise. Some of them are right. Others are not.
The only way to evaluate that claim is to look at what has actually happened to projects launched two to four years ago when they came to completion and entered the resale market. The data is available. Most buyers just do not look at it.
How to Read Post-Launch Performance
There are two data points worth tracking for completed new launch projects: subsale transactions (units sold before completion but after the project launched) and resale transactions after TOP (Temporary Occupation Permit).
A project where subsale and early resale prices are consistently above the original launch price is one where buyers who paid launch pricing came out ahead. A project where resale prices are flat or below launch is telling you that the launch was priced at or above market value.
What the 2022 to 2024 Launches Show
Projects launched in the OCR during 2022 and 2023 were priced during a period of strong demand and low inventory. Many launched above $1,800 PSF in areas where comparable older projects were transacting below $1,500 PSF.
For projects in well-located OCR areas with direct MRT access and strong school catchments, the subsale and resale data shows prices holding or marginally improving. For projects in locations with weaker connectivity or heavier competing supply nearby, some units are transacting at or slightly below launch pricing in early resales.
RCR launches from the same period have performed more consistently, particularly those near MRT lines and in established residential districts.
CCR launches have been more subdued since the 2023 foreign ABSD increase. Projects targeting international buyers have seen weaker subsale volume.
What This Tells Buyers in 2026
If you are looking at new launches now, the relevant question is: what comparable projects launched two to three years ago in a similar location, and how are those trading today?
If the answer is "flat to slightly below launch price," that is a signal about how the developer and market priced that launch. It does not mean the current launch will follow the same path, but it is a data point worth having.
Projects in the RCR with strong connectivity, manageable unit counts, and reputable developers have the most consistent track record. Mass-market OCR projects in high-supply zones carry more risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I find subsale data for new launch condos in Singapore?
URA REALIS publishes all caveat transactions, including subsales. You can filter by project name and transaction type. A property consultant can pull and interpret this data for specific projects you are evaluating.
Does a high sell-through rate at launch mean the project will appreciate?
Not necessarily. A high sell-through rate reflects demand at launch pricing. It does not guarantee future appreciation. What matters more is the quality of the location, the supply environment in that area, and how the launch was priced relative to comparable projects.
Which new launch condos in Singapore have performed best since 2022?
Projects in the RCR with MRT connectivity and in established residential addresses have generally shown the most consistent performance. Specific project performance data is available through URA REALIS caveat records.
Should I buy a new launch or a resale condo in 2026?
This depends on your budget, timeline, and risk tolerance. New launches give you time to prepare financially but carry execution risk. Resale gives you certainty on the unit and immediate occupation. There is a separate article on this comparison on the Property Insights page.
How do I evaluate whether a new launch is fairly priced?
Compare the PSF to recent transactions in similar projects nearby, account for the premium that new launches typically command (usually 10 to 20%), and check the subsale and resale data from the developer's past launches in similar locations.
Want a Data-Backed View on a Specific Launch?
Before committing to a new launch, Serene can pull the transaction history for comparable projects and help you assess whether the launch pricing makes sense for your goals.
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